Kenyan Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua faces a crucial battle to retain his position, needing the support of at least 23 senators to survive the impeachment process currently in the Senate. His job is at risk following a decisive loss in the National Assembly, where 281 members voted to impeach him, surpassing the required threshold of 233 votes. The motion, brought forward by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse, now moves to the Senate, which is set to begin deliberations next Wednesday and Thursday.
Speaker Amason Kingi described the proceedings as precedent-setting, emphasizing the Senate's role in upholding the Constitution. The Senate’s process will include time for Mutuse to present the motion, followed by a chance for Gachagua to present his defense, and then a final vote. During the hearings, Gachagua will face some of the key witnesses supporting the impeachment motion, including Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja, Secretary to the Cabinet Mercy Wanjau, and former Kemsa CEO Andrew Mulwa.
These witnesses have submitted affidavits accusing the Deputy President of interfering in tenders, disregarding Cabinet directives, and encouraging citizens to defy lawful county mandates. Gachagua’s legal team is expected to challenge these claims during the proceedings. Initially, there was a proposal to form an 11-member Senate committee to investigate the matter, but this was rejected, speeding up the timeline for the full Senate hearing. Typically, a committee would have 10 days to investigate such motions, but now all 67 senators will directly vote on the issue.
The stakes are high for Gachagua, as political analysts suggest that the outcome hinges more on political maneuvering and numbers than the specifics of the allegations. According to Javas Bigambo, a political analyst, Gachagua’s chances of swaying the Senate are slim. “It will take a great effort of persuasion, theatrics, and near-miracles to try and beat the government at marshalling senators against him,” he noted, emphasizing the difficulty of shifting senators' positions given the weight of evidence, party loyalty, and personal sentiments.
Despite this, Gachagua has managed to rally some support, with around 12 senators reportedly backing him, including Kiambu’s Karungo Thang’wa, Joe Nyutu of Murang’a, and John Methu of Nyandarua. Senators from Nakuru, Laikipia, and Lamu are also seen as leaning toward the Deputy President. Additionally, some members of the Wiper party, led by Kalonzo Musyoka, have been instructed to support Gachagua, including Kitui’s Enoch Wambua, Machakos’s Agnes Kavindu, and Dan Maanzo of Makueni, though some defied these instructions in the earlier vote.
Other possible allies include Nominated Senator Shakilla Abdalla, though analysts do not discount the possibility of changes in allegiance as the hearing progresses. The voting intentions of several senators remain uncertain, including Nandi’s Samson Cherargei, Kisii’s Richard Onyonka, Okiya Omtatah of Busia, and Kajiado’s Seki Lenku. Observers are also closely watching nominated senators Karen Nyamu, George Mbugua, and Margaret Kamar.
Insiders suggest that up to 55 senators may ultimately support the impeachment motion, but there is still speculation that the process may not be as straightforward as some anticipate. Former LSK President Eric Theuri believes that while most of the 11 grounds for Gachagua’s impeachment could be dismissed, a few may still pose a challenge for the Deputy President. As the Senate session looms, the outcome remains uncertain, with political dynamics likely to play a critical role.
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